Naphtha swaps threaten Q1 LPG flows outlook

Global LPG seaborne movements continued to set fresh highs in December, but in her latest LPG Monthly Report, Vortexa head of market analysis, Americas, Samantha Hartke warned that a return to more typical propane–naphtha swap behaviour in the winter curve signal naphtha as the more profitable steam cracker feedstock, threatening to curb LPG send-out in Q1 2026.

Vortexa indicated that butane exports surged on increased northwest Europe supply, while propane demand weakened as northeast Asia’s gas-switching economics receded.

China’s LPG intake was described as “on the wane” as steam cracker favourability flipped towards naphtha, while India was expected to remain robust on growth in new household connections.

The report also pointed to restocking in South Korea lifting northeast Asian imports (excluding China), alongside “strong structural growth” in southeast Asia’s residential demand.

On Atlantic Basin demand, northwest Europe’s imports retreated as US supply diverted towards southeast Asia and the Mediterranean, while the Mediterranean’s intake was supported by Morocco’s heating requirements and Turkey’s re-exports.

Africa’s intake was said to have surged on Morocco demand and a “deluge of US barrels”, while South America’s imports retreated following stronger appetite in November.