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24 Feb 2026
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Tanker routes: short-range transparency, long-range risks
Baltic Exchange adds transparency to four northwest Europe tanker routes as Venezuela and Iran scenarios stay in focus, while broker data shows firmer earnings
The Baltic Exchange launched a new suite of indices covering four short-range tanker routes in northwest Europe, introducing the Baltic Intermediate Tanker Indices (BITI) for routes TC25, TC26, TD30 and TD31.
The organisation said the indices would be published weekly on Wednesdays, and linked the launch to the level of spot activity in the region, stating that “approximately 200 spot fixtures” occur in the sector each month.
Baltic Exchange head of benchmark production Matthew Cox said, “The launch of the BITI addresses a long-standing need for greater transparency in the short-range tanker market. It is a sector that remains underreported, but with a high and robust level of commercial activity. We simply could not ignore a portion of the market that is this active.”
This will be welcomed by those active in the tanker short-range markets, but the headlines continue to create risks in the long-range sectors.
Vortexa’s latest review of the Venezuela scenarios noted how a reported US-linked “30-50M barrels” might be handled, and what that would mean for execution risk.
“Of the approximately 200 dark VLCCs, almost all are supporting either Iranian or Venezuelan exports”
Vortexa warned the volume “should be understood as a potential monetisation of already-produced crude, not evidence of a production rebound,” adding that the market impact depended on whether barrels moved through a one-off clearance, a repeatable managed channel, or enforcement actions that disrupted flows without a durable outlet.
Vortexa also stated, “Based on Vortexa data, recent Venezuelan crude exports have averaged approximately 700,000-750,000 barrels per day over 2024-2025, reflecting the system’s effective export capacity under constrained diluent availability and operational limits”, which it described that level as “a deliverability ceiling”.
The other long-range risk is, once again, Iran, with Gibson Shipbrokers highlighting the tanker risk pricing to geopolitics link, arguing that the near-term focus had returned to Iran, “The primary threats remain disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional oil infrastructure,” adding that “insurance premiums and freight costs would likely rise to reflect higher regional risk,” it said in a note.
It stated, “Gibson estimates under a modest scenario of 2M barrels per day of exports, sanctions relief against Iran would generate demand for 25 VLCCs and 20 Suezmaxes, assuming trading patterns similar to 2018.”
It also said, “Of the approximately 200 dark VLCCs, almost all are supporting either Iranian or Venezuelan exports.”
Tanker activity in the last week was firm.
Clarksons reported “average weighted tanker earnings” increased 40% week-on-week to US$59,344 per day, and said VLCC and Suezmax tankers’ earnings exceed US$100,000 per day.
The report described crude markets as tight in several load regions and quoted its VLCC assessment, “A very strong week in the VLCC market, initially fuelled by geopolitical speculation, but further support appeared as the fundamentals turned very tight.”
Clarksons’ data showed VLCC rates rising week-on-week on its referenced routes, including MEG to China at Worldscale 130.00 (from 77.50) and US Gulf to UKC at 6.75 (from 5.00).
For Suezmax tankers, Clarksons said the market “strengthened throughout the week, with sentiment firmly in owners’ favour across all regions”, citing the WAF to UKC route closing at Worldscale 175.00 and Black Sea to Med at Worldscale 260.00 (up 100 points week-on-week).
Aframax tanker rates on the cross-UKC route rose to Worldscale 160.00, while Black Sea to Med rose to Worldscale 250.00 (up 50 points week-on-week).
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