Rising Chinese soya bean purchases from US may weigh on tonne-mile demand

According to the initial White House announcement in November, China was expected to purchase at least 12M tonnes (mt) of US soya beans during the final two months of 2025, and a minimum of 25 mt annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028.

US officials later clarified that the deadline for the first period of the deal aligns with the end of the “growing season,” estimated around September 2026.

Howe Robinson Partners head of dry bulk research Bilal Muftuoglu told Riviera that total US soya bean sale commitments to China for this marketing year have already reached nearly 11 mt, over 90% of the agreed volume.

Reaching this target well ahead of the deadline is logical, as US soya bean market liquidity typically slows after February. “It makes sense for China to purchase as much as possible as early as it can,” Mr Muftuoglu noted.

Howe Robinson expects most of these volumes – around 8 mt – to be shipped in the current quarter, before US exports to China are anticipated to fall to 1-2 mt in Q2 and further to 1 mt in Q3.

Mr Muftuoglu added that the targets for both the first period and subsequent years are achievable. “China has historically imported around 25 mt per year from the US – sometimes even more – so these figures do not suggest artificial demand,” he explained.

According to Howe Robinson estimates, actual shipments to China began in early December, with total volume through mid-January reaching just over 2 mt, carried on 32 vessels – 27 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and five Supramaxes/Ultramaxes.

Changing trading patterns

The rush to increase US soya bean purchases is expected to reduce China’s reliance on South American cargoes. During the height of the US-China trade war, Beijing diversified sourcing, increasing imports from Brazil and Argentina.

Mr Muftuoglu highlighted that higher Chinese purchases from the US are likely to reduce reliance on Argentina first. Argentina’s exports to China rose from 4 mt in 2024 to around 11 mt last year. “That figure could fall to around 5 mt in 2026, as Argentina is expected to return to more domestic soymeal crushing,” he explained.

Brazilian volumes could also decline. Howe Robinson expects exports to China from Brazil to drop to 79 mt in 2026 from 85 mt in 2025.

This shift will materially affect tonne-mile demand. Mr Muftuoglu noted that tonne-mile demand growth for soya bean trade to China last year outpaced volume growth, with displaced US cargoes previously having a net positive effect.

“Now, it appears that some US soya beans are shipped from the North Pacific, which has a negative tonne-mile impact,” he said. “However, those from the US Gulf are moving via the Cape of Good Hope for the time being, so the drop in tonne-mile demand is less severe.”

He added that if security conditions improve in the Suez Canal region, these volumes could return to that route later this year.