The size of the prize

Based on current data from Clarkson Research Services (CRS), the 1,000th LNG carrier is expected to enter service by June 2027. That milestone is underpinned by a heavy near-term delivery profile. Drewry records fleet growth of 9.6% in 2025 with 89 vessels joining by year-end, followed by schedules of 94 and 92 in 2026 and 2027 respectively.

Orderbook composition matters for suppliers. CRS data show a concentrated builder landscape, with five shipyards accounting for more than two-thirds of all LNG carriers in service or on order, and a narrow set of containment and propulsion choices across the mainstream fleet. The same dataset points to “propulsion consolidation”, with two-stroke dual-fuel designs now dominant in newbuildings. Fewer technical variants reduce integration risk and simplify spares strategies. They also compress competition within each equipment class, which may support pricing power for incumbents while leaving later entrants to compete on lifecycle support rather than first-fit supply.

The demand side is not a void. The International Gas Union’s 2025 Global Gas Report states that: “LNG trade grew for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 555 bcm,” and highlights ~270 bcm of liquefaction capacity approved or under construction to be commissioned by 2030. That frame aligns with Drewry’s vessel demand model, which indicates “between 150 and 250 LNG carriers will be required by 2030 under base-case and high-case scenarios.” In other words, the fleet growth visible on orderbooks connects to cargo programmes rather than abstract optimism.

For equipment makers, the “size of the prize” is therefore twofold. First, the newbuilding wave itself - dense deliveries through 2027, a lull in 2025–26 ordering that Drewry expects to re-accelerate from 2027 as more projects take FID, and a predominantly long-term chartered orderbook, “about 75%” committed.

Second, the serviceable installed base that follows. Drewry expects scrapping to rise with “a record number of LNG carriers…already…scrapped in 2025” and demolitions peaking by 2028, tightening the age profile and tilting the fleet towards a modern, standardised plant. Standardisation enlarges commonality across critical systems; service, upgrades and reliability packages should track that reality.

There are caveats. CRS notes deliveries in 2026–27 clustered at a small set of yards, which increases schedule sensitivity. Drewry also flags a vessel surplus persisting to 2027 before rebalancing, with ordering momentum expected to “rise from 2027”. Suppliers should plan for a throughput peak followed by a service-heavy plateau, rather than a straight-line climb.

The market signal from the gas side remains supportive. The IGU report concludes that natural gas “remains essential to energy security,” with LNG underpinning system flexibility as power systems absorb more variable renewables, and calls for “targeted investments in natural gas and LNG supply, infrastructure, and storage.” If that capital flows as outlined, the installed LNG carrier fleet will not only grow - it will require disciplined aftersales capacity in diagnostics, parts logistics and field engineering over decades. That is the prize: fewer product permutations, deeper contractual tails, and a fleet whose technical centre-of-gravity suits scalable service models - provided suppliers align footprint and working capital to a delivery bulge that gives way to sustained maintenance demand.