APAC offshore wind: frontier of growth

Maritime Strategies International senior offshore energy market analyst, Todd Jensen, admitted there have been “some hiccups along the way” in the region but was bullish on its outlook. “The next five to 10 years, there’s a lot of opportunity, especially in APAC, to get offshore wind kicking off,” he said.

Those opportunities, pointed out Mr Jensen, are represented by the offshore wind capacity targets set by the region’s countries: Taiwan has a target of developing 10.9 GW, South Korea, 14.3 GW, Japan, 5.7 GW and Vietnam, 6.0 GW. Mr Jensen told delegates at the Offshore Support Journal Conference, Asia 2025 in Singapore in September that some of the ambitious 2030 targets look to be a step too far, but groundwork has been laid for the future. In his presentation, he made a comparison between stated offshore wind capacity targets and forecast installations by 2030. Only Taiwan was forecast to nearly meet its goal, with 9.95 GW of installed capacity by 2030 – about 91% of its goal of 10.9 GW. Japan will be over 70% of its target, while both South Korea and Vietnam, likely below 50%.

But Mr Goh provided some additional context on the recent project delays and cancellations. “This represents a small fraction of the total offshore wind capacity that is going to be constructed in the future. Over the past four to five years, it has been a rather bullish market,” he noted.

Another issue in supporting projects has been the availability of wind turbine installation vessels, he said. In the quest to maximise energy efficiency and power generation, wind turbine manufacturers have been rapidly scaling up their technology, requiring the use of larger wind turbine installation vessels, which are in short supply.

“The turbine size has increased quickly, from eight megawatts to 15-18 megawatts,” said Mr Goh. But a key factor he pointed out was the drive for energy security during Covid, which generated “a huge gap in the supply chain,” he said. “This resulted in costs spiralling up,” impacting the commercial viability of some projects.

But Mr Goh told delegates at the conference that this has resulted in a necessary correction or readjustment, where the demand for offshore wind vessels are still running ahead of the supply.

“Vessel demands continues to grow”

He sees foundation installation vessels (FIVs) as a “critical bottleneck”, noting there are about a dozen such vessels that can handle 2,000-tonne+ monopoles, exhibiting full utilisation levels in 2024.

Based on forecasts between 2030-2035, Mr Goh said “pent up demand” from the offshore wind markets will create a need for an additional 15 FIVs, with larger cranes.

Despite delayed projects and regulatory challenges, he is confident that the market is heading for growth. “Energy security becomes a very fundamental element … the continued growth story of offshore wind,” he said.

Calling Asia “the next frontier of growth”, Mr Goh predicted offshore wind will “push for bigger turbines and further offshore projects.” This, in turn, will generate the need for a new generation of more capable, larger installation and service vessels.

He also foresees owners motivated to drive towards “green propulsion, energy efficient technology and even smarter solutions” because of carbon pricing. “In the next five to 10 years, I think offshore wind is just going to be bigger, greener, and only future-ready vessels will be able to leverage the growth and the sustainability of the sector,” he concluded.