Carbon capture: forecast claims 65 CO2 ships and 33 ports required to meet 2050 targets

Removing enough carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to meet its decarbonisation targets will require Europe to have a dedicated fleet of around 65 CO2 carriers and infrastructure built at 33 ports by 2050, according to a forecast from Subsea7 subsidiary and energy consultancy Xodus. 

The forecasted figures take into account a halving of market share for CO2 transport by ship over that period. Still, despite more than 75% of emissions being sent for storage via pipeline by mid-century, the study authors say that ships will carry twice the volume they are expected to as carbon capture and storage projects develop offshore.

"While the shipping share of the transport market is expected to fall from 48% to 24% over that period as pipeline networks are built out, the volume of CO2 carried by ship is predicted to more than double to 79 MTPA," the CCUS Enabling Infrastructure Study, commissioned by Aberdeen-based non-profit Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC) said. 

"Captured emissions across Europe are forecast to grow from 70 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2030 to 320 MTPA by 2050." 
NZTC said its analysis screened more than 800 ports in operation across Europe, narrowing them down through shortlisting processes that ultimately identified up to 60 that are "particularly well placed to gather captured emissions and route them to offshore geological storage by 2050". Among the ports that could function as both ‘emitter’ and ‘storage’ ports are ports in heavily industrialised areas of Europe, including the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Humberside and Liverpool Bay in the UK.

Xodus global head of CCUS James McAreavey said most of the technology needed to move captured carbon around Europe already exists and has been "proven" in the LPG sector and in the first major offshore CCUS project, Northern Lights.

"The task now is scaling it," he said. “Shipping gives emitters early access to offshore storage years before onshore pipeline networks can be consented and built. If investment in ports and vessels starts now, the North Sea can set the benchmark for how the UK and Europe connect emitters to storage.”

The modelling indicates a fleet of around 22 ships will be required by 2030, growing to 65 by 2050 based on an average cargo capacity of 15,000 tonnes per vessel. These would serve a network of high-throughput ports, supported by a set of regional export sites, and includes around 23 gathering and exporting CO2 from emitters, and 10 receiving it for onward transport to offshore storage.

The report predicts the European CO2 transport market will evolve as a hybrid system between 2030 and 2050. Pipelines are expected to dominate high-volume, heavily industrialised corridors, while shipping provides flexibility, cross-border connections and a route to decarbonise regions where pipelines would not be competitive.

Cost-based modelling consistently identifies the North Sea as Europe’s primary storage sink across the period, with the UK, Dutch and wider sectors predicted to receive large-scale imports of CO2 from other regions.

In Japan and Korea - both of which currently lack significant oil and gas production but are expected to lead CCUS demand in the region - the requirement for carbon capture and storage could necessitate an offshore industry similar in scale to the gas infrastructure currently operational in north-west Australia, a 2025 Xodus report found. 

By 2055, the report forecasted that the Asia-Pacific region could require over 90 storage sites, around 8,000 km of pipelines and almost 80 specialist vessels to deliver its CO2 sequestration needs.

Were a similar hybrid model to develop in that region, the report claimed that linking CCUS projects to LNG assets could reduce costs by 10-15%, the equivalent of shortening shipping distances by over 3,000 km, helping to bridge the initial gap between emitters and stores.