LNG carrier deliveries outpacing LNG supply growth

Before Lansdowne Moritz managing consultant Gary Regan warned LNG Shipping & Terminals 2025 Conference delegates weak LNG spot rates could persist through 2026, Trelleborg Marine & Infrastructure managing director for transfer systems Matteo Suzzani set the scene.

In his opening address, Mr Suzzani placed the industry’s focus on the points at which the LNG industry’s various infrastructures interface: the practical compatibilities that bind ships, terminals and systems.

Mr Suzzani described a market that is anything but static and a community spanning shipowners, traders, terminal operators, regulators, suppliers, engineers and innovators, urging open, technical dialogue to keep transfers safe, efficient and scalable.

“LNG has opened borders, has connected continents, has nullified distances, and has enabled co-operation across geographies and ideologies,” Mr Suzzani said.

LNG market outlook

In his freight forecast for the LNG market, Mr Regan also compared different aspects of the LNG sector, arguing ships are arriving at a pace that is racing ahead of liquefaction capacity expansion, creating short-term pressure on spot earnings. 

“Ships deliver on time and LNG supply projects deliver late,” he said succinctly.

In Mr Regan’s view, this mismatch will keep spot charter rates on their knees through 2026, while recycling decisions at 20 and 25-year dockings begin to remove older steam-turbine tonnage to help spur a later recovery as new LNG supply ramps up. Mr Regan said he expects supply growth to accelerate as projects under construction come online, but cautioned that project timing matters for freight.

In short, he suggested market fundamentals imply low spot rates in 2026, potential improvement in 2027 and stronger conditions by 2028, with retirements rising as owners weigh investment against recycling.

The FSRU market is essentially sold out, he noted, with only one or two units potentially movable at a premium. Mr Regan also noted the rapid growth in LNG bunkering demand over recent years.