Crude oil tanker leaders confident winter strength will continue in 2026

On the demand side, the executives focused on seaborne crude growth, inventory dynamics and the distribution of trade flows.

Mr Harfjeld said expected demand growth had been “about 1M barrels per day” in 2025, with the forecast for 2026 “a bit higher than that”.

He said a key feature was that the majority of crude growth had been satisfied by seaborne movements, which he argued translated into meaningful shipping demand growth.

The practical “hard line” for trading a tanker had historically been 15 years, but had “definitely” moved closer to 20 years in the current environment

The panel also discussed the risk that inventory building could later unwind.

Mr Seidelin said there had been “inventory growth this year” and that it was “expected to continue next year as well”.

He said if supply growth outpaced demand, there was a scenario in which the front end of the market could weaken and move into contango, which in turn could support floating storage and longhaul voyages.

Mr Barstad linked current strength to the interaction between sanctions, compliance preferences and fleet productivity.

He said there had been “record high oil in transit” and a “quite substantial amount of oil… in one way or another, floating storage”, which he associated with sanctioned crude struggling to find an end market.

He said the result was that “actors are actually switching towards compliant barrels”, which benefited owners operating in mainstream trades.

Fleet structure and the age profile of trading tonnage featured heavily in the supply-side discussion.

Mr Harfjeld said the crude tanker fleet is ageing rapidly and it would take time before fleet supply materially changed through renewal.

He said by end-2028 “50% of the fleet will be older than 15 years of age, or 25% older than 20 (years)”, and he argued that this underpinned a favourable earnings period even with volatility.

On fleet renewal and trading older ships, Mr Seidelin said Teekay’s technical management and inhouse approach had helped keep vessels competitive through retrofits aimed at fuel savings.

He said the practical “hard line” for trading a tanker had historically been 15 years, but had “definitely” moved closer to 20 years in the current environment, while Teekay did not expect to trade “beyond 20 in a meaningful way”.

He said the company had sold 11 tankers during 2025 while also starting to rebuild its fleet.

The panellists also debated scenarios around the ‘grey’ or ‘shadow’ fleet and the extent to which a change in sanctions or a Russia–Ukraine settlement could reshape tonne-miles.

Mr Seidelin said tonne-miles had increased by 5% in 2022 and by 7% in 2023, with most of the impact falling “straight smack down” into mid-size tankers, and said a reversal of those war-driven gains would be difficult to dispute.

On assets and investment discipline, Mr Tsakos said ordering a VLCC at “US$130M” for delivery in 2028 or 2029 required a long-term business case, suggesting “US$60,000 a day” was needed to make a return, and argued that speculative ordering should be avoided.

In the closing discussion, the executives described capital allocation choices as shaped by renewal needs and the value of cash in a cyclical market.

Mr Seidelin said Teekay maintained liquidity because fleet renewal was unavoidable and “the thing you can rely on is called cash”.

Mr Harfjeld said DHT aimed to “strike a balance” between spot exposure and time-charter cover while maintaining a low-leverage balance sheet and a clearly defined dividend policy.

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