Ideological attacks, disinformation, economic headwinds drag down short-term offshore wind forecast

GWEC’s 2025 Global Offshore Wind Report finds that there is already 83 GW of offshore wind installed worldwide and a further 48 GW of offshore wind under construction.

“With its unique position… and ability to produce large amounts of reliable, homegrown power, nations around the world are pushing forward the technology to enhance their energy independence and autonomy,” said GWEC. 

“2024 was a key year for offshore wind auctions: a total of 56.3 GW of offshore wind capacity was awarded worldwide last year. Europe led the way, with 23.2 GW awarded and 17.4 GW in China. A next wave of markets also had landmark years with South Korea awarding 3.3 GW, Taiwan 2.7 GW and Japan 1.4 GW.”

However, as GWEC acknowledges, despite this positive momentum, there have been well documented challenges in the sector of late. “Like other sectors, macroeconomic headwinds have raised the cost of capital and impacted project economics,” it said. 

“The industry has also endured increasing ideological attacks and a persistent and rising tide of disinformation. There has been a great deal of policy instability in the US market, typified by the recent issuing of a cessation of work order issued to the Empire Wind project (now lifted). 

“In GWEC’s view, such policy instability represents a dangerous precedent and sends the wrong message to the plethora of interested global investors, while also putting thousands of jobs, manufacturing capability and future economic growth at risk. These wider challenges have collided with ineffective policies, such as slow permitting and auction design. As a result, investors are left exposed and without clear pathways to returns, making them far more cautious about which projects really make economic sense.”

In 2024, new installations totalled 8 GW – down 26% from the previous year – though it still ranks as the fourth highest year on record for installations. The global pipeline remains strong, but adverse conditions – including the negative policy environment in the US, auction failures in the UK and Denmark, and grid transmission delays in Europe – have led GWEC to downgrade its short-term forecast, for the period 2025 to 2029, by 24% compared with our earlier 2024 forecast. Delays in expected commissioning dates in APAC are affecting capacity additions. But despite these setbacks, GWEC said most governments and developers remain committed to offshore wind, and the global medium-term outlook remains resolutely optimistic.

GWEC deputy chief executive Rebecca Williams said, “Offshore wind is powering into a new era. The fundamentals of offshore wind remain rock solid, and countries around the world – from Brazil to Australia – are backing offshore wind to deliver clean, secure, home-grown energy at scale. In doing so, they are putting themselves at the leading edge of the next Industrial Revolution, one where growth and prosperity will be built through widespread electrification. The path forward is clear and achievable – smarter auctions, better policies, and faster delivery. With record levels of construction and auctions, 2025 is a pivotal year. This is the moment for industry and governments to come together, knuckle down and deliver the next stage of offshore wind’s growth.”