Deeper IMO targets for GHG reduction 'appear viable', but not for 2030

In response to the working group’s talks, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), which represents a large segment of the shipping industry, said it was both disappointed and optimistic.

“We are disappointed by the lack of progress on setting new levels of ambition for GHG reductions to provide shipping with a clear net-zero target for 2050. But we remain optimistic that a deal can still be struck at the crucial MEPC meeting in July," the comment from ICS chairman Guy Platten said.

Mr Platten also highlighted an improved position for ICS’ proposal for incentives for shipowners who commit to using low- and zero-carbon fuels in their vessels.

"More positively, governments are increasingly understanding the value of the ICS Fund and Reward proposal to accelerate the production and uptake of low and zero-carbon fuels,” he said.

A group of environmental NGOs reiterated the worries revealed in the recently published UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth report on climate change that warned limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C requires deep and immediate emissions reductions across all sectors within this decade.

"Climate change is already causing damage to nature and people, and urgent action now is the only way for humanity to limit this and ensure a livable future," the group of NGOs that included Transport & Environment, Clean Shipping Coalition, Ocean Conservancy, Seas at Risk, Pacific Environment and Carbon Market Watch said.

"IMO member states must listen to the IPCC, and urgently commit to halving greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 2030 and to reach zero emissions by 2040. It must also ensure this transition is just and equitable, given the disproportionate impacts on vulnerable states," the group said.

Transport & Environment’s shipping policy lead Faig Abbasov said a strategy compatible with the 1.5ºC global average temperature rise limits set forth in the Paris Agreement "means at least 37%-50% emissions cuts by 2030".

However, maritime academic and policy consultancy UMAS, in its readout of the working group’s discussions, said it remains difficult to gauge what will take shape as policy negotiations resolve into a formal agreement in July.

"From a side-event presentation of preliminary results, targets with deep GHG reductions in 2040 and 2050 appear viable, but the highest level of 2030 reduction (54% reduction on 2008 [levels]) did not," UMAS’ overview of working group discussions said.

UMAS policy lead Dr Aly Shaw said, “This meeting marked a growing clarity on likely ambition for 2050 and also 2040, which is a positive sign for an equitable transition which, at its core, requires targets aligned with limiting temperature rise to 1.5ºC or below. However, despite the repeated support across meetings for a just and equitable transition that leaves none behind – there is little sign of this commitment being embedded throughout the revised strategy as of yet.”

UMAS director Dr Tristan Smith said, “It is hard to overstate how important the MEPC 80 outcomes will be both for society’s efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, but also for the shipping sector. Reading from the numbers of how many support high ambition outcomes, there are positive signs. But this is a simplistic way to estimate how these debates will conclude. The nature of the off-IMO debate leading up to MEPC 80 is therefore crucial.”

During the same week as IMO’s negotiations, the EU agreed a deal on its FuelEU Maritime legislation, adding further pressure to IMO’s revised strategy.

The final version of the regulatory text will see ships required to gradually reduce greenhouse gas emissions by curbing GHG intensity – measured in grams of CO2/megaJoule of energy – by 2% as of 2025, 6% by 2030, 14.5% by 2035, 31% by 2040, 62% by 2045 and 80% by 2050. 

The deal also set a ratcheting clause that would see the introduction of a 2% renewable fuels usage target for shipping implemented by 2034 if a 2031 EU Commission review finds that RFNBO use amounts to lower than 1% of shipping’s overall fuel mix within the EU.

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