Calling the outlook for offshore wind “fantastic,” Clarksons head of business strategy for renewables David Matthews said US$20Bn in investment in new offshore wind vessels will be needed to meet the market’s demand over the next three years
Kicking off Session 1 at Riviera Maritime Media’s Offshore Wind Journal Conference in London, 7 February, Mr Matthews told a packed meeting room those projections did not include demands for floating offshore wind nor China’s domestic market. Outside of those markets, Clarksons forecasts are for all types of windfarm vessels – foundation installation vessels, wind turbine installation vessels, survey vessels, crew transfer vessels, service operation vessels and construction service operation vessels.
“We should be bullish on offshore wind,” he told delegates, noting with all the global projects moving forward there could be ’gaps’ and a vessel ’crunch’ beginning in 2025. He said by 2030, there could be 30,000 offshore wind turbines active that need to be maintained.
The upturn in the offshore oil and gas market has also drawn OSVs that were being deployed in offshore wind out of the market, he noted, pushing up dayrates.
“Shipowners, your time has come,” he said.
Mr Matthews said some markets, such as the Asia Pacific and US, will offer owners and developers challenges because of cabotage and content requirements.
Rystad Energy senior analyst, energy service research Martin Opsahl Lysne echoed Mr Matthew’s buoyant market sentiments. He said offshore wind capex will eclipse US$100Bn in 2030, exceeding that of offshore oil and gas for the first time. Mr Lysne said floating wind will drive the demand for powerful anchor handling tug supply vessels, with demand tightening by 2030. New generation offshore wind turbines – larger and more powerful – will dominant the market, with three-quarters exceeding 10 MW in capacity after 2026.
In joining the panel discussion, IMCA chief executive Allen Leatt sounded a note of caution. He said offshore wind targets are at risk because of “unrealistic expectations of the capital costs and the risk of developing projects.” He said increased costs put FIDs at risk.
He said offshore contracting in offshore wind has become “unsustainable” and there needs to be a fairer allocation of risks among developers and contractors, requiring an “economic reset and normal returns by reducing costs with collaborative solutions.”
He noted past successes in addressing similar challenges in the offshore oil and gas market in the early 1990s in the North Sea, when oil was trading at US$12 per barrel. He cited the Cost Reduction in a New Era (CRINE) initiative in which operators and contractors jointly worked to wring out unnecessary costs.
Heavy construction work in the offshore wind market is often conducted on a fixed price basis. To support the market, IMCA has just published, IMCA Renewables Contracting Principles (IMCA LCIC 014).
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