Report predicts e-fuel container shipping in 2027

“The results of the RFI offer a valuable glimpse into the emerging market for e-fuels and e-fuel-capable vessels," said Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonisation Hub director of sustainable fuels and strategy Dr Carlo Raucci. "Despite the current gap between e-fuel supply and vessel availability, it’s encouraging to see the potential for e-fuels to make a significant impact on the maritime sector. We’re excited to collaborate with ZEMBA on its second tender, which could be instrumental in driving the widespread adoption of scalable e-fuels in shipping.”

ZEMBA’s upcoming tender builds upon lessons learned during its inaugural tender, which was successfully completed in April 2024. Global carrier Hapag-Lloyd was the winner of the first tender and is supporting members to collectively avoid at least 82,000 tonnes of CO2e in 2025 and 2026.

The majority of RFI respondents predicted commercial e-fuels deployment in the maritime sector would be feasible starting in 2027 and 2028, with limited deployment potentially as early as late 2026. However, in the next few years, the RFI results identified a mismatch in the supply of certain e-fuels and corresponding e-fuel-capable vessels on a fuel-by-fuel basis. 

Container ships capable of operating on e-methane are available now, but the RFI found no e-methane production projects post-final investment decision (FID). Conversely, e-ammonia production projects under construction appear to be sufficient to meet ZEMBA’s estimated demand, but the first e-ammonia-capable container ships are unlikely be on the water by 2027. 

The RFI suggests e-methanol is the most likely pathway for ZEMBA’s next tender because of alignment between sufficient projected e-methanol fuel production and e-methanol-capable container ship vessels on the water in 2027. However, across fuel types, the report highlights a significant number of e-fuel projects remain at preFID stage, casting doubt on whether those projects would begin production on their projected timelines and, related, if e-fuel-capable dual-fuel vessels will actually run on e-fuels. 

One finding from ZEMBA’s inaugural tender was that announcements for e-fuel development projects often do not correlate to commercial readiness within predicted timeframes. ZEMBA received no e-fuel-powered bids for its first tender. Commitments from ZEMBA members for e-fuel-powered shipping services through the next tender will aim to provide encouragement to ship operators and others across the maritime value chain to enter into longer term offtake e-fuel contracts of their own. 

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