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Shipping to remain a net emitter in 2050, says DNV report
Maritime transport needs to reduce its emissions by at least 95% to help the planet average net-zero emissions by 2050
One of a number of analytical tomes produced in the days ahead of the UN’s climate change convention (COP26) in Glasgow, DNV’s Pathway to Net Zero report takes a glancing look at maritime decarbonisation as part of a holistic overview of how the world can get to a point where it is using, sequestering and offsetting at least as much carbon as it is emitting.
Classed as one of the harder to abate sectors of economic activity, maritime is seen as not "lending itself" to carbon capture and storage efforts, decarbonising instead "through electrification and fuel switching, which enable fairly low emission intensities by 2050," according to DNV.
The report makes clear the by now well-defined delineation between shortsea and ferry sectors which are decarbonising mainly through electrification of vessels and the deepsea sectors whose lengthy trade routes traversed at steady speeds favour combustion engines and globally available, energy dense fuels. It does so to underscore the expectation that fossil fuels will be phased out very gradually; however, the report noted, fuel cells will be prominent in the mix of fuels and techologies that will be used to lower fuel consumption and carbon intensity.
The pathway to net zero for maritime shows "a diverse future energy mix comprising both fossil and low-carbon fuels," with a fuel mix including "fossil marine fuel oils, LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electro-based hydrogen, ammonia and LPG, and bio/electro-based methanol, LNG and marine gasoil".
Working backwards from a series of predicted scenarios DNV lays out annually in its energy transition outlook report, the Pathway to Net Zero analysis said, among other things, that the maritime transportation sector will account for 15% of global hydrogen demand by 2050.
"The absence of a significant battery-electric option for most parts of maritime transport leaves synthetic fuels, biofuels, ammonia and hydrogen as viable options for decarbonisation leading to hydrogen and its derivatives supplying 75% of the maritime fuel mix by 2050 in our PNZ (pathway to net zero)," the report said.
In terms of development and market penetration of hydrogen and the hydrogen derivative ammonia, DNV’s report estimated a timeline of between four and eight years for key technologies to be available for use on board vessels.
Ultimately, the DNV report pointed to the most developed, western countries as the key to reaching net-zero carbon emissions globally, saying those countries need to utilise, sequester or offset more carbon emissions than they produce.
"Zero is not enough," said DNV chief executive Remi Eriksen. "That is because, try as they might, many developing nations and hard-to-abate sectors will not be able to achieve zero emissions by 2050 – the critical threshold for the world to stay within 1.5°C of warming. Developed nations, leading companies and easy-to-electrify sectors are therefore going to have to go below zero before 2050."
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