Clarksons' tanker data shows firm crude markets, restrained contracting

Average weighted tanker earnings rose to nearly US$50,000/day by late October, a 19-month high and more than double the 10-year trend, according to Clarksons’ October edition of Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook.

Crude markets led the gains, with sectorwide earnings above US$100,000/day, while product tankers held near US$22,000/day and above long-run averages, albeit below the exceptional 2022–2024 period.

Clarksons expected a strong winter, particularly for crude, supported by export growth from the Middle East and Brazil, and limited fleet growth.

The orderbook stood at 14.7% of the fleet by end-September, while newbuilding activity remained constrained and demolition stayed light. Across January–September, owners contracted 155 tankers of 17.2M dwt (20.0% below the 10-year average on an annualised basis).

Tanker demolition totalled just 36 ships of 2.2M dwt, with crude removals 71.0% below the 10-year average; the Clarksons Tanker Newbuild Price Index was 212 points at the start of October, down 5.0% year on year but still elevated.

Forward balances pointed to a firmer crude sector into 2026 before conditions eased thereafter.

Clarksons projected crude-tanker dwt demand growth of 1.0% in 2026 (after 1.5% in 2025), set against trading-fleet growth of 2.8% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027.

Product tankers were likely to face the sharper supply impulse: the MR, Handysize and small-range trading fleet was projected to grow by 6.4% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, versus product dwt demand growth of 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027.

Initial 2027 projections therefore suggested a softer supply–demand balance across both crude and products.

Alternative-fuel capability continued to build in the orderbook faster than in the trading fleet. For crude, 15.5% of the orderbook (by number) was alternative-fuel-capable versus 2.9% of the fleet; in products, 9.9% of the orderbook (13.2% by dwt) compared with 1.7% of the fleet.

This gap, combined with restrained contracting and low removals, underlined a transition in composition rather than a near-term contraction in capacity.