Three giant steps to GHG 2050

In 2018, IMO set a series of greenhouse gas emission (GHG) goals for shipping, culminating in a 50% reduction in GHG by 2050. The first thing to note is that thanks to slow steaming, carbon emissions are already 20% lower than the base year (2008: 1,025M tonnes CO₂ output), according to CRS. But against this has to be balanced the fact that world trade continues to grow and with it the demand for shipping. Assuming a 1.7% per annum tonne-mile growth post-2020, no change in average speed and no change in the fuel mix (currently 97% oil-fuelled), then carbon output would grow to three times the 2050 target.

To achieve 512M tonnes carbon output by 2050, CRS constructed three (giant) steps to achieve that target:

• Step 1 sees a slowdown in tonne-mile demand growth to 1.5% per annum.
• Step 2 requires a further drop in average speed by 8% to around 10.5 knots.
• Step 3 envisages a change in the fuel mix from 97% oil-fuelled to 45% LNG-powered, 40% zero carbon and just 15% oil-fuelled.

CRS acknowledges there are many possible permutations that could lead to a 50% reduction in carbon by 2050. All would require huge structural changes in the global fleet, its ability to serve trade and changes in average speeds.

By providing a scenario and the steps required, CRS has given the shipping industry an indication of the tasks ahead, and it is huge.

The largest structural change would be, according to CRS: “…the conventional oil-fuelled fleet peaking out almost immediately, LNG-fuelled vessels acting as a ’bridge’ (around 40% of deliveries to 2040) before alternative zero-carbon fuels constitute the majority of deliveries in the 2040s.”