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24 Feb 2026
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Wood Mackenzie: ordering window will narrow as LNG fleet ages
Wood Mackenzie notes that building constraints and emissions rules are tightening the ordering window, with more than 650 LNG carriers required by 2040
Wood Mackenzie notes that the global LNG shipping industry will require more than 650 new LNG carriers by 2040, arguing that today’s ordering decisions are being compressed by yard lead times and a faster pace of fleet turnover.
The analysis, titled Global LNG shipping outlook: form an ordering queue, examined LNG trade and shipping dynamics and set its forecast in the context of both capacity additions and scrapping expectations.
The consultancy linked near-term market conditions to a prolonged period of weak earnings.
It said the market had experienced “18 months of historically low short-term charter rates”, while “newbuild vessel deliveries averaging over 20 per quarter during the same period drove the weakness”.
Wood Mackenzie forecast that 2026 would bring “another year of strong deliveries with limited signs of near-term upside”.
Its outlook shifted from 2027 as new LNG supply capacity began to enter service this decade, supported by what it described as “a record year of LNG supply final investment decisions in 2025”.
It said much of the new supply was expected from the US, and noted that US LNG often traded on a free-on-board basis, increasing the share of cargoes that responded to movements in global gas prices.
That, it said, would lead to “less direct LNG trade patterns”, creating “a more inefficient market that requires additional shipping capacity”.
Build time was presented as the practical constraint, with Wood Mackenzie principal analyst, global LNG assets, Fraser Carson noting, “LNG carriers are taking around 2.5-3.0 years to build at the moment.”
He linked that lead time to contracted volumes, adding, “If players have already contracted LNG offtake to start before the end of the decade, the decision around placing a newbuild order needs to be made now.”
In its findings, Wood Mackenzie said, “Over 650 new LNG carriers (174,000 m³ equivalent)” would be required by 2040 based on its trade and scrapping forecasts, and that the “current orderbook supports global trade through 2030, but individual requirements are needed before then”. I added that the newbuild investment “was limited for most of 2025”.
Regulation and fleet dynamics featured in the rationale for earlier replacement.
Wood Mackenzie said maritime emissions regulation is accelerating turnover, pointing to the European Commission bringing maritime CO2 emissions into its Emissions Trading System “in stages between 2021 and 2024”, which it said made “older, less-efficient vessels increasingly uneconomic to operate globally”.
It said the “average scrapping age has dropped from around 40 years historically to 26 years”, and forecast 73 vessels would be scrapped over the next five years compared with 55 over the previous 11.
Mr Carson said softer pricing and geopolitical uncertainty “likely kept some charterers on the sidelines in 2025”, but argued replacement demand was tightening the window for decisions. “Vessels are exiting the LNG fleet more quickly and earlier than ever before, and the capacity lost will need to be replaced. We expect to see an upturn in ordering activity during 2026,” he said.
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