COP26: calls intensify to align shipping decarbonisation with Paris Agreement

Dr Smith said that overall political targets for decarbonisation were slowly coming into line with the scientific data that underpins the UN’s Paris Agreement.

"You can see that convergence happening over time. You can see from Copenhagen to Paris and hopefully to Glasgow… that the ratchet mechanism that’s behind the Paris Agreement is causing the political [targets] to come closer, but we know we’re not there at the moment."

Pointing to a broad consensus among national governments on a global net-zero carbon emissions deadline of 2050, Dr Smith said, "the natural consequence of shipping not doing the same as national governments is that national governments then have to [decarbonise] even faster” to compensate for shipping’s carbon emissions.

However, Dr Smith said there is no "spare carbon budget" to be had to offset an extended deadline for shipping’s decarbonisation. Current government commitments for decarbonisation measures put the world on course for a predicted temperature rise well above the Paris Agreement’s well-below-2°C limit to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

"We know we’ve got commitments that add up to [a 2.7°C average temperature increase]," Dr Smith said, noting that within IMO, policy is lagging further behind.

"We know that IMO’s not got policy which is close to what it needs to be on, and its initial strategy is still ambiguous about whether it’s aligned to the Paris Agreement," he said.

Dr Smith said failing to base IMO’s decarbonisation policy measures on a schedule that aligns with scientific estimates for keeping the global temperature rise within Paris Agreement limits poses a risk to the industry.

"What we need to do is identify what is going to be robust enough to enable us to build a fleet, have a strategy, have assets that will not become stranded as that incremental policy and political process eventually lands up where the scientists say that we need to be," he said.

Ultimately, clear and aligned targets between national governments and IMO are critical to allow the industry to effectively decarbonise, Dr Smith said.

"It’s important for coherency, consistency, that [national] transport ministries are saying the same as their environment ministry counterparties and [aligning with] the UNFCCC process. But it’s really important for the ability of IMO to focus the really crucial mid-term measures discussions that are starting already… on what we actually need to achieve," Dr Smith said.

"If we spend the next three years developing levies and fuel standards that are targeted at [a 50% reduction of emissions by 2050] and then in 2023, IMO goes, ‘Oh yeah, we’ve had a think about it and let’s get to zero [emissions] by 2050,’ all of that policy debate will be about measures and stringencies which are not fit for purpose," he said.

Dr Smith pointed to IMO’s short-term decarbonisation measures as an example of regulations that had been watered down by consensus-building and lack of clarity.

"If you give any ability for the member states to find the easy way out at IMO, they use it to get the consensus on the policy measure, and that’s why the stringencies on CII and EEXI are not strong enough," he said.

"They were able to say, ‘yes, we did that one thing,’ the 40% carbon intensity objective, and claimed that as a victory while conveniently forgetting about all the other things they said they would do in the strategy. So, you have to remove the ambiguity and you have to remove the ambiguity before you develop the policy not after you’ve developed the policy and it’s too late."

Dr Smith pointed to the Getting to Zero Coalition’s call to action as a positive indicator that the industry is open to taking proactive steps to push for clarity and a more ambitious decarbonisation schedule than that currently under discussion in IMO.

Joining the calls for more rapid action on decarbonisation, the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping launched its own industry transition strategy, saying that "with critical levers activated and a global carbon levy shipping can reach close to net-zero GHG emissions by 2050".

Reaching the 1.5°C or well-below-2°C targets of the Paris Agreement by 2050 the group said, would require additional scaling-up of alternative fuel supplies and retrofitting of existing fleets.

DNV released its own report in recent days, saying that shipping is likely to remain a net emitter in 2050 and calling the most developed, western countries the key to reaching net-zero carbon emissions globally, saying those countries need to be carbon negative by 2050, utilising, sequestering or offsetting more carbon emissions than they produce.