A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes it will be ammonia, not methanol, that must play a major role if shipping is to meet its ambitious emissions reductions targets
IEA’s 2023 Net Zero Roadmap outlines the steps necessary to achieve the 1.5°C climate goal. The report suggests ammonia must emerge as the key shipping fuel if the industry is to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
While hydrogen and ammonia use in shipping is negligible at present, demand for these fuels is expected to rise greatly in the longer term in the projected scenario, with the increase in low-emissions hydrogen driven not just by shipping but also the other transport sectors.
Hydrogen is expected to account for 4% of shipping’s energy use in 2030 and up to 19% in 2050. Biofuels are projected to grow from zero in 2022 to 8% in 2030, rising to to 13% and 19% in 2035 and 2050 respectively.
Meanwhile, methanol, which has seen mushrooming interest, is expected to take a back seat, accounting for just 3% by 2050.
New fuels will need new engines. The Net Zero Roadmap notes major engine makers are in the final stages of developing ammonia two-stroke engines for commercialisation by 2025. Large methanol-powered container ships began entering the market for the first time this year while small-scale hydrogen fuel-cell ferries also began operating in Norway and the United States.
MAN announced the successful completion of combustion testing of a two-stroke engine running on ammonia last month, but questions remain on the larger supply chain.
A study by ING concluded earlier this year that the production process for newer fuels is highly energy intensive and the fuels themselves are not especially efficient. Production is currently much more expensive and they will be prone to the usual swings of volatile commodity markets.
Today, there are no commercial ships operating on ammonia, but the IEA notes about 150 ammonia-ready vessels were already on order at the end of 2022 and present an opportunity to rapidly develop the associated safety protocols.
According to the IEA, “In the net-zero emissions scenario, orders of ammonia-ready vessels increase from the 2022 levels on average by about 20% per year to 2030, representing about 15% of typical annual vessel orders. Agreements between shipping operators and ammonia and methanol producers will be necessary to bring supply and demand into line and to enable the use of low-emissions hydrogen in shipping to rise as rapidly as envisaged in the net-zero emissions scenario.”
More generally, staying on track means almost all countries must move forward their targeted net-zero dates and a massive scaling up of investment, especially in emerging and developing economies.
IEA estimates in the net-zero pathway, “global clean energy spending rises from US$1.8Tn in 2023 to US$4.5Tn annually by the early 2030s.”
IEA executive director Fatih Birol explained, “Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires the world to come together quickly. The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it. Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward.”
The new Net Zero Roadmap can be accessed here.
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