What’s driving the tanker newbuilding bonanza? VLCCs and Suezmaxes lead the charge

Xclusiv Shipbrokers research analyst Eirini Diamantara told Riviera that this year’s surge in tanker orders is rooted primarily in structural fleet dynamics, but is also strongly supported by the solid freight environment of recent years.

“The tanker market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with several segments generating robust earnings and healthy cash flows, giving owners both the confidence and the liquidity to reinvest in new tonnage,” she said.

At the same time, the ageing profile of the global tanker fleet is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

As of February 2026, 39% of the MR1 fleet is 21 years old or older, while 14% of MR2 vessels have surpassed the 21-year mark. In the Aframax/LR2 segment, 20% of ships are 21 years old or older, compared with 19% in both the Suezmax and VLCC sectors.

“These figures highlight the growing replacement pressure across nearly all size classes, reinforcing the rationale behind the recent pickup in newbuilding activity,” Ms Diamantara noted.

Staggering order volumes

Data shared by Xclusiv Shipbrokers shows that by the end of last week, 94 tankers had been ordered so far this year, compared with 38 vessels in the same period of 2025.

VLCCs lead the charge, with 33 units contracted in 2026 versus none in the corresponding period last year. Suezmax orders have surged to 26 vessels, up from just three in 2025.

Activity has strengthened in the Aframax/LR2 segment, rising from four to 10 ships, while MR2 orders have jumped from four to 18 units. Small tankers are the only segment trailing last year’s pace, with seven ships ordered in 2026 compared with 21 in 2025.

Chinese shipbuilder Hengli Heavy Industries has emerged as a key beneficiary of the ordering wave, building on strong momentum from 2025. Domestic reports indicate the yard has secured more than 60 firm orders so far this year, including 49 tankers.

Greek owners rank among the most active players, with companies including Dynacom Tankers, Pantheon Tankers, Capital Group and Minerva Marine linked to multiple large tanker newbuilding contracts in recent weeks.

Deliveries set to accelerate – but no supply shock yet

With orderbooks expanding, deliveries are naturally expected to accelerate over the coming years.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers’ analysis indicates that approximately 342 tankers will be delivered in 2026 and 368 in 2027, marking the highest annual additions since 2009, when 406 vessels entered service at the peak of the last major supply cycle.

MR2, Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax segments are all set to record their strongest four-year intake between 2025 and 2028 since the 2008-2011 cycle. However, the overall scale of the upcoming deliveries remains significantly below the peaks of the previous super-cycle.

MR2 deliveries between 2025 and 2028 are projected to be about 14% lower than 2008-2011 highs, while Aframax/LR2 additions are expected to trail their historical peak by roughly 6%. Suezmax deliveries are forecast to broadly match previous maximum levels.

The VLCC segment follows with a lag, peaking in the 2026-2029 window. Even so, deliveries are expected to remain materially below the 2019-2022 super-cycle.

This underlines that even in the largest crude carrier class, fleet growth is unlikely to revisit the excesses of the most recent expansion phase, Xclusiv noted.

Analysts conclude that while the upcoming delivery wave is elevated by post-2012 standards, it remains below prior super-cycle extremes. Ultimately, the risk balance for the tanker market will depend less on headline orderbook growth and more on demand durability and the pace of scrapping in the years ahead.