Decarbonisation, digitalisation and cyber security will be major drivers in the shipping industry according to DNV chief executive Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen
He said major trends from this year will influence industry changes, investments and regulations into 2023 for maritime industries. “We have been through some remarkable years, and there are three major tectonic shifts in shipping,” said Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen.
“We are in a stronger position, but conflict is on the rise,” he said in a brief presentation in London, UK, on 12 December 2022.
He highlighted the unpredictability of shipping markets, influenced by geopolitics such as Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, and how it impacts shipping demand and charter rates.
“There have been political shocks and a super-cycle in container shipping with growth in newbuildings and high rates.”
Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen described how maritime regulations will be affected by international concerns over climate change. “Decarbonisation is setting the agenda, affecting regulatory requirements,” he said.
Pressure on the shipping industry to reduce carbon emissions has already impacted ship design and will continue to affect vessel operations in 2023, driven by IMO’s introduction of the carbon intensity index (CII) and energy efficiency of existing ships (EEXI).
Another tectonic shift is the changes in “technology of new fuels and energy efficiencies” said Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen, including digitalising shipping fleets and developments in fuels such as ammonia, methanol, biofuels and hydrogen.
There has been a recent surge in orders for newbuilds powered by alternative fuels, representing a step-change for the market.
DNV offers its forecast for future trends in maritime in its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, launched in September 2022, and in Alternative Fuel Insights, DNV provides information on the number of ships operating and on order using alternatives to diesel or very low sulphur fuel oil.
Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen also highlighted how digitalisation puts more ships in danger from cyber threats, being the third tectonic shift in the market. “Cyber security is moving the agenda,” he said.
Shipowners, operators, managers and third-party solution providers need to ensure their networks, IT and operating technologies are secure from cyber threats.
With all these market-influencing trends and changes, Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen is expecting challenges and opportunities for shipping companies next year.
“There will be bumpy roads in 2023,” he said, adding the world needs to “be enlightened about what the industry can deliver” in terms of ensuring effective maritime trade and transporting alternative green fuels worldwide.
This will generate opportunities for shipping companies with sustainable business models to benefit in 2023 and beyond.
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