Biofuels' net GHG emissions could be double traditional fuels' without IMO policy changes

Crop-based biofuels ’worse for the climate than traditional shipping fuels’

Crop-based biofuels have been presented as shipping’s likeliest source for what could be an exponential uptake of biofuels by the end of this decade, according to a report commissioned by the environmentally focused non-governmental organisation Transport & Environment.

Under IMO’s current draft of its forthcoming ’green fuels’ regulation, nearly a third of global shipping could run on biofuels by 2030, up from less than 1% today, according to the new research produced by academic consultancy Cerulogy for Transport & Environment. 

"This [outcome] could actually exacerbate climate change and put pressure on global food supplies," the report said.

In the report’s projected biofuels uptake scenario, where the fuels are not explicitly excluded from IMO’s list of decarbonised fuels, the study shows palm and soya oil would likely make up nearly two-thirds of the biodiesel used to power the shipping industry in 2030. Cerulogy’s projection is economically based, with crop-related biofuels representing the ’cheapest’ biofuels feedstocks when policy does not specifically include the cost of the deforestation their production involves.

"This poses a serious climate problem, as palm and soya are responsible for two to three times more carbon emissions than even the dirtiest shipping fuels today, once deforestation and land clearance are taken into account," the report said.

The report calculated the projected production of crop-based biofuels in amounts necessary to meet demand for the shipping industry’s increased uptake would require farmland measuring some 34M hectares by 2030 – equalling the total land area of Germany.

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