LNG shipping stands on an accelerating curve of yet more newbuildings, fleet growth and increased sanctions for LNG post-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – expect more of the same
The impact of the LNG carrier orderbook on shipyards
The LNG carrier orderbook is entering another growth stage and has reached 53.6% of the total LNG carrier fleet. In the 150-180,000 m3 size range, the orderbook is now 80% of the existing fleet, according to Clarksons Research Services (CRS), and the 180-220,000 m3 size range stands at 49% of the current fleet.
While these numbers are encouraging for the long-term health of LNG shipping and for suppliers of LNG shipping equipment, they will also have a profound impact on the profile of shipbuilding availability in the future.
Not only have LNG carriers absorbed slots that are no longer available to other ship types, that mass of LNG carrier orders impacts the value-added products shipyards wish to build.
A Suezmax tanker, even an LNG-powered newbuilding, has less value-added input compared to an LNG carrier that could be built in the same slot. Value-added is calculated in compensated gross tonnes (CGT).
According to CRS, in August 2009, the gas sector only accounted for 4% of the CGT on order, which was at a time when there were 316 active shipyards building vessels over 20,000 dwt.
In 2023, there are only 148 active shipyards, but the gas carrier proportion of CGT is 27% and China has seen the biggest gain in CGT.
LNG carrier prices to fall?
Not in 2024, or any time soon, but if shipyards have upskilled since 2009, and are now building higher value-added vessels, when the current phase of Qatar orders comes to an end, shipyards will be very reluctant to downskill and LNG carrier prices may fall.
Will 2024 be the year of conversion to an LNG carrier?
The high prices being sought for LNG carriers provides an interesting space between the high demand for LNG shipping in the post-Russian invasion of Ukraine and the availability of newbuilding slots.
If only there was a way to convert an existing bulk vessel to LNG carrier... At Gastech 2023, LNT Marine and Keppel FELS signed a framework agreement giving Keppel access to LNT A-BOX technology. This supports projects Keppel is currently working on, where the IMO type A tank system developed by LNT Marine can be retrofitted or integrated into newbuild vessels.
The LNT Marine technology was on display and presented at the LNG Shipping & Terminals Conference in November 2023, and it is never to early to register an interest for the 2024 event.
The framework agreement recognises the competitiveness of LNT Marine’s A-BOX containment by an established shipyard and elevates the status of the containment system to that of established systems.
LNT Marine has already converted one vessel, and given the demand for LNG, 2024 may be the year other conversions take place.
Russian liquefaction sanctions target in 2024
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West will continue to target Russian liquefaction projects in 2024. In a recent move, the USA imposed sanctions on Novatek’s transhipment operations, and the company’s 19.8-MMt/y Arctic LNG 2 project. Even so, Russia was able to announce the float out of the first mass-produced gravity-based liquefaction unit in July 2023, from the Belokamenka Offshore Superfacility Construction Center. Expect more sanctions to follow in 2024.
Safety first
One of the most dramatic presentations at the LNG Shipping & Terminals Conference was not actually part of the script. Dragon LNG managing director Simon Ames used the platform to draw attention to a Safety Flash the Welsh LNG terminal had issued. A parking stop on the hose arm, a piece of safety equipment itself, detached and fell, narrowly missing workers below. It was a useful reminder that although LNG shipping has progressed a long way, when it comes to saety, improvements and learnings can always be made. Have a safe 2024.
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