IMO emissions consensus hangs on geopolitics as major powers decide its fate 

The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) remains on the table, with member states agreeing in late April to continue negotiations.

However, several influential figures in the Greek shipping industry have strongly criticised the scheme, advocating alternative proposals.

“Depending on where you are in the world, you’ll hear different scenarios,” Mr Stefanatos told Riviera on the sidelines of Posidonia.

DNV has developed four possible scenarios for the future of the NZF, ranging from its adoption as proposed to its rejection, with fragmented regional policies continuing to gain momentum.

However, Mr Stefanatos said it is currently impossible to assign probabilities to any of the scenarios.

“I really cannot respond on whether consensus can be achieved,” he said.

The debate is no longer primarily technical, he continued. Back in 2020, when the IMO introduced the global sulphur cap, discussions centred on fuels, compliance challenges and potential technical implications. Today, the conversation has shifted to a different level.

Geopolitics and the actions of the major global players will likely determine the fate of any global emissions framework, Mr Stefanatos noted.

Gulf crisis not stopping decarbonisation

Turning to the crisis in the Middle East and whether it could slow the decarbonisation process, Mr Stefanatos said the situation could develop in either direction.

While the obvious answer is yes – given that energy security has become a top priority worldwide – there is also a counterargument.

“Theoretically, we could see decarbonisation being promoted. Fuel price volatility, or a widening imbalance between fossil and green fuel costs, could change the economics of certain business cases,” Mr Stefanatos said.

“Something that was previously not viable could now become attractive from a techno-economic perspective,” he added.

A notable example emerged in April, when the use of biofuels became more economically attractive than marine gasoil (MGO) after bunker prices rose sharply following the Gulf crisis.

Meanwhile, the industry continues to move forward, Mr Stefanatos noted. While a significant number of vessels remain affected by disruptions in the Gulf region, other shipping segments have remained largely unaffected and continue to pursue their decarbonisation strategies.

“The ambition is still there,” he said.

“Shipowners that wanted to proceed with alternative fuels, energy-efficiency measures or operational-efficiency improvements continue to do so. In particular, technologies associated with reducing fuel consumption are advancing rapidly,” Mr Stefanatos added.

Boost for conventionally fuelled vessels

The global orderbook has expanded significantly in recent months, with shipowners continuing to favour conventionally fuelled tonnage.

Mr Stefanatos said newbuilding orders largely paused between April and October 2025, as shipowners waited for greater regulatory clarity following the approval of the NZF and ahead of its anticipated formal adoption.

However, following the postponement of key discussions, the market experienced a strong rebound in orders for conventionally fuelled vessels, as shipowners received no clear signal encouraging a shift towards alternative fuel solutions.

“The uncertainty is still there and we cannot answer whether ordering conventionally fuelled ships is the right choice or not. There is a risk involved if the regulations eventually proceed,” he said.

According to DNV data, around 10% of the gross tonnage currently in operation runs on alternative fuels, while the orderbook points to a significantly higher figure of 42%.