112 crude tankers remain in Persian Gulf as Iran military claims Strait of Hormuz closure

• Iranian military declares Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to set ships trying to pass ’ablaze’
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• Hormuz closure scenario predicts LNG price pushing past US$100/MWh
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• Stena tanker hit as Middle East ports rocked by Iranian missile attacks; Qataris and Saudis close gas and oil plants
• Crew casualties grow as commercial vessels take fire in escalating US-Israeli and Iranian conflict
• ’Over 200 tankers stuck inside the Persian Gulf,’ as war risk drops out and insurance rates double

3,200 vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf, including 70 VLCCs

Traffic data cited by Clarksons pointed to a sharp drop in movements into the Strait. It noted that “vessel arrivals in the Strait were recorded as down 80% from normal levels on 1 March”.

The drop in traffic coincided with reports from market participants and ship managers that transits had effectively halted for many operators.

Clarksons also published an estimate of how much shipping capacity is now exposed to any prolonged restriction on movements. It said it estimated around 3,200 vessels were inside the Persian Gulf, equivalent to 4% of global tonnage.

Within that total, it counted 112 crude tankers, including more than 70 VLCCs, which is 8% of the global VLCC fleet. Other tankers being impacted, according to Clarksons, include 195 product tankers (4% share of global tonnage) and 21 VLGCs (5% of the global fleet).

Clarksons also noted a further 500 vessels (1% of global tonnage) were waiting outside the Gulf in ports off the UAE and Oman.

Alongside traffic disruption, incident reporting has widened, from warnings, to confirmed attacks and casualties. Commercial vessels and ports have come under attack in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the southeastern stretch of the Persian Gulf, and multiple sources have confirmed fatalities and injuries.

Stena Bulk confirmed that one of its tankers, Stena Imperative, a US-flagged vessel, had taken fire while berthed.

“Stena Imperative, technically managed by Crowley, suffered damage due to aerial impacts while berthed, shortly after 02:00 AST (local time) in the Persian Gulf,” a Stena spokesperson said.

Dryad Global also issued a warning on the unseen threat in the Strait of Hormuz, “The risk of Iranian sea mine use in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated and should be treated as a credible escalation option, even though there have been no confirmed reports of mines being detonated at the time of writing.”

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