Shadow fleet expands: Russian oil trade the main driver, despite continued sanctions

Growth of the shadow fleet

According to AXSMarine Research, the shadow fleet currently consists of more than 700 tankers, almost half of which are involved in the Russian oil trade.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the total number of ships in this fleet increased by 20%. AXSMarine categorises these vessels into two distinct groups: "ghost" and "dark" vessels.

The "ghost fleet" comprises tankers owned by small shipping companies with no prior experience in ship management, yet actively involved in Russian oil trading. AXSMarine notes that since the crude oil price cap was introduced in December 2022, the ghost fleet’s share of the overall shadow fleet has surged by more than 27%. In 2024 alone, the share of ghost tankers increased by over 15%, with their average age estimated at over 19 years.

The "dark fleet," on the other hand, consists of tankers owned by companies with direct links to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. These vessels often engage in illicit trading, circumventing international sanctions. The dark fleet’s average age is nearly 17 years. Data from AXSMarine shows a slight decrease in the dark fleet’s share of the total shadow fleet, although this remains within the 20% range. AXSMarine points out that such fluctuations are common.

Emerging STS hubs for Russian crude exports

Despite the UK government claiming that sanctions on the ’shadow-fleet’ "have left vessels materially disrupted, with the vast majority of them idling outside ports and unable to carry on their trade in Russian oil," analysts say the data shows that STS transfers continue to play a crucial role in facilitating the export of Russian-origin crude oil.

Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea shows that 254,000 barrels per day (b/d) of Russian crude were rerouted via STS transfers last month. Mark Esposito, senior principal research analyst, highlighted that August marked the third consecutive month in which over 200,000 b/d of Russian crude were transferred at sea, a pattern last seen between April and June 2023.

Esposito also reported that STS operations near Oman facilitated a record 92,000 b/d of crude shipments to India, marking a four-month high. Meanwhile, STS transfers near Egypt tripled from 32,000 b/d in July to 92,000 b/d in August—the highest level since April.

Previously, Greece—specifically Laconia Bay—served as a major hub for STS transfers of Russian oil. However, military exercises conducted by the Greek Navy in the second quarter of the year have significantly reduced STS activity in the region.

Greeks are out

Greek vessel operators have also shown a noticeable shift in behavior. While they were highly active in Russian crude exports during the initial months following the invasion of Ukraine, recent data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea suggests that these operators have steadily reduced their involvement in this trade.
Esposito observed that in August, Greek-domiciled operators were responsible for just 7% of Russian crude exports—the lowest level since the invasion. In contrast, 28% of the month’s shipments were carried by vessels that did not disclose a nationality of control. China-based operators currently hold the largest share of Russian crude exports.

Despite international sanctions, the ’shadow fleet’ in Russian oil trade is expanding, affecting global tanker markets and fleet strategies. Discover how these geopolitical factors are influencing the tanker industry at the Tanker Shipping & Trade Conference 2024. Join us to gain insights into market dynamics, fleet management, and the future of global tanker operations.

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